Early warning
Upcoming at council
Open lobbying registrations that are not yet linked to any council or committee agenda item, with an estimated window for when a linked item may appear, based on how long past registrations on the same topic took.
- With an estimated window
- 1,589
- 99% of open registrations
- Lead-time sample
- 1,207
- Registrations with a published link
1,609 open registrations without a linked item; 1,589 have an estimated window. Lead times are drawn from 1,207 registrations with a published link.
Open registrations by topic
Top 10Topic spikes in the last 12 months
New registrations vs previous 12-month averageData table· 26 rows
Open registrations: Sports facilities and major events
All topics →- 12 September 2027 – 8 December 2031ISB Global ServicesSM36787 · approved 11 July 2025
- 8 October 2027 – 30 September 2031Rogers CommunicationsSM35798 · approved 30 July 2024
- 3 March 2028 – 2 June 2031Canada Running SeriesSM33570 · approved 26 August 2022
- No window yetCanada Running SeriesSM17491 · approved 25 November 2011
Data table· 4 rows
| Registration | Client | Topic | Approved | Estimated window for a linked item |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SM36787 ISB would be interested in an opportunity to provide employment background screening, driver abstract monitoring as well as screening for any coaches, voluntaries etc. related to sports. | ISB Global Services | Sports facilities and major events | 11 July 2025 | 12 September 2027 to 8 December 2031 from all topics' lead times (n=505) |
| SM35798 Logistics related to events held at the Rogers Centre. | Rogers Communications | Sports facilities and major events | 30 July 2024 | 8 October 2027 to 30 September 2031 from all topics' lead times (n=377) |
| SM33570 Toronto Waterfront Marathon | Canada Running Series | Sports facilities and major events | 26 August 2022 | 3 March 2028 to 2 June 2031 from all topics' lead times (n=219) |
| SM17491 Canada Running Series | Canada Running Series | Sports facilities and major events | 25 November 2011 | No estimate: not enough published links with lead times yet |
How well the window has worked
Backtest on registrations whose first linked item fell between 1 December 2018 and 14 November 2022: no registration could be evaluated (0 of 0 evaluable; 0 registrations with a published first linked item in the period). Each window uses only lead times known before the registration was approved.
Method: iqr-conditional-v1: window = interquartile range of lead times known before approval (topic if n>=10, else pooled); hit when the first published linked item falls inside.
How the window is estimated
- Lead timeDays from a registration's approval to its first published linked agenda item.
- ConditionKeep past lead times longer than the days this registration has already waited.
- WindowThe middle half (25th to 75th percentile) of those lead times.
- Lead time is the number of days from a registration's initial approval date to the first agenda item it is linked to. Only published links count (model score 0.7 or higher).
- For an open registration with no linked item after d days, the window is the middle half (25th to 75th percentile) of the historical lead times longer than d, using its topic's lead times when the topic has at least 10, otherwise all topics together.
- A spike is a month whose new registrations exceed the topic's mean over the previous 12 months by more than 2 standard deviations (and at least 3 registrations). Monthly volumes use the topic from the registry's subject categories until the decision model has tagged at least 95% of registrations, so that months tagged by different methods are not compared.
- Topics come from the tracker's taxonomy, assigned by a decision model from the registration text. Until the model has run on a registration, the topic is taken from the registry's own subject category and marked as such.
A window is a statistical estimate from past registrations, not a prediction that council will consider the matter. Many registrations never lead to an agenda item.