Early warning
Upcoming at council
Open lobbying registrations that are not yet linked to any council or committee agenda item, with an estimated window for when a linked item may appear, based on how long past registrations on the same topic took.
- With an estimated window
- 1,589
- 99% of open registrations
- Lead-time sample
- 1,207
- Registrations with a published link
1,609 open registrations without a linked item; 1,589 have an estimated window. Lead times are drawn from 1,207 registrations with a published link.
Open registrations by topic
Top 10Topic spikes in the last 12 months
New registrations vs previous 12-month averageData table· 26 rows
Open registrations: Banking, insurance and financial services
All topics →- 13 February 2027 – 30 December 2029Intact Financial CorporationSM37927 · approved 10 September 2026
- 24 April 2027 – 11 May 2031Investment Management Corporation of OntarioSM37350 · approved 27 January 2026
- 9 May 2027 – 15 June 2031Burke & Orion LimitedSM37315 · approved 14 January 2026
- 8 August 2027 – 7 October 2030Investment Management Corporation of OntarioSM30691 · approved 9 October 2020
- 30 August 2027 – 10 November 2031Beacon Securities LimitedSM36915 · approved 27 August 2025
- 12 September 2027 – 14 October 2031Canaccord Genuity Group Inc.SM36234 · approved 2 January 2025
- 17 November 2027 – 15 June 2031Cheyne Capital Management UK LLPSM34552 · approved 8 June 2023
Data table· 7 rows
| Registration | Client | Topic | Approved | Estimated window for a linked item |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SM37927 Potential business opportunities | Intact Financial Corporation | Banking, insurance and financial services | 10 September 2026 | 13 February 2027 to 30 December 2029 from all topics' lead times (n=1,093) |
| SM37350 To inform the municipality of IMCO's capabilities and track record with respect to investing their clients reserves. | Investment Management Corporation of Ontario | Banking, insurance and financial services | 27 January 2026 | 24 April 2027 to 11 May 2031 from all topics' lead times (n=674) |
| SM37315 Develop efficiencies and controls relating to employee group benefits plan. | Burke & Orion Limited | Banking, insurance and financial services | 14 January 2026 | 9 May 2027 to 15 June 2031 from all topics' lead times (n=663) |
| SM30691 Provision of investment advisory services and investment management services for the City of Toronto. | Investment Management Corporation of Ontario | Banking, insurance and financial services | 9 October 2020 | 8 August 2027 to 7 October 2030 from all topics' lead times (n=140) |
| SM36915 Discussion of existing debt syndicate structure and other capital markets matters | Beacon Securities Limited | Banking, insurance and financial services | 27 August 2025 | 30 August 2027 to 10 November 2031 from all topics' lead times (n=528) |
| SM36234 Advocating for the introduction and utilization of Canaccord Genuity Group Inc.'s financial services and solutions to the City of Toronto. | Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. | Banking, insurance and financial services | 2 January 2025 | 12 September 2027 to 14 October 2031 from all topics' lead times (n=432) |
| SM34552 Lobbying for investment into private mutual funds | Cheyne Capital Management UK LLP | Banking, insurance and financial services | 8 June 2023 | 17 November 2027 to 15 June 2031 from all topics' lead times (n=273) |
How well the window has worked
—No registration could be evaluated in the backtest period.
Backtest on registrations whose first linked item fell between 1 December 2018 and 14 November 2022: no registration could be evaluated (0 of 0 evaluable; 0 registrations with a published first linked item in the period). Each window uses only lead times known before the registration was approved.
Method: iqr-conditional-v1: window = interquartile range of lead times known before approval (topic if n>=10, else pooled); hit when the first published linked item falls inside.
How the window is estimated
- Lead timeDays from a registration's approval to its first published linked agenda item.
- ConditionKeep past lead times longer than the days this registration has already waited.
- WindowThe middle half (25th to 75th percentile) of those lead times.
- Lead time is the number of days from a registration's initial approval date to the first agenda item it is linked to. Only published links count (model score 0.7 or higher).
- For an open registration with no linked item after d days, the window is the middle half (25th to 75th percentile) of the historical lead times longer than d, using its topic's lead times when the topic has at least 10, otherwise all topics together.
- A spike is a month whose new registrations exceed the topic's mean over the previous 12 months by more than 2 standard deviations (and at least 3 registrations). Monthly volumes use the topic from the registry's subject categories until the decision model has tagged at least 95% of registrations, so that months tagged by different methods are not compared.
- Topics come from the tracker's taxonomy, assigned by a decision model from the registration text. Until the model has run on a registration, the topic is taken from the registry's own subject category and marked as such.
A window is a statistical estimate from past registrations, not a prediction that council will consider the matter. Many registrations never lead to an agenda item.