Early warning
Upcoming at council
Open lobbying registrations that are not yet linked to any council or committee agenda item, with an estimated window for when a linked item may appear, based on how long past registrations on the same topic took.
- With an estimated window
- 1,589
- 99% of open registrations
- Lead-time sample
- 1,207
- Registrations with a published link
1,609 open registrations without a linked item; 1,589 have an estimated window. Lead times are drawn from 1,207 registrations with a published link.
Open registrations by topic
Top 10Topic spikes in the last 12 months
New registrations vs previous 12-month averageData table· 26 rows
Open registrations: Environmental assessments
All topics →- 13 March 2027 – 16 January 2031Fora DevelopmentsSM37494 · approved 16 March 2026
- 24 July 2027 – 21 September 2030Residential and Civil Construction Alliance of OntSM28598 · approved 19 July 2019
- 19 October 2027 – 7 September 2031CIMA+SM35869 · approved 28 August 2024
Data table· 3 rows
| Registration | Client | Topic | Approved | Estimated window for a linked item |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SM37494 2400-2440 Dundas St. W. | Fora Developments | Environmental assessments | 16 March 2026 | 13 March 2027 to 16 January 2031 from all topics' lead times (n=754) |
| SM28598 The Residential and Civil Construction Alliance of Ontario (RCCAO) released a report on July 17th on the Municipal Class Environmental Assessment Process in Ontario. | Residential and Civil Construction Alliance of Ont | Environmental assessments | 19 July 2019 | 24 July 2027 to 21 September 2030 from all topics' lead times (n=92) |
| SM35869 Consulting Engineering and Environmental Services | CIMA+ | Environmental assessments | 28 August 2024 | 19 October 2027 to 7 September 2031 from all topics' lead times (n=383) |
How well the window has worked
Backtest on registrations whose first linked item fell between 1 December 2018 and 14 November 2022: no registration could be evaluated (0 of 0 evaluable; 0 registrations with a published first linked item in the period). Each window uses only lead times known before the registration was approved.
Method: iqr-conditional-v1: window = interquartile range of lead times known before approval (topic if n>=10, else pooled); hit when the first published linked item falls inside.
How the window is estimated
- Lead timeDays from a registration's approval to its first published linked agenda item.
- ConditionKeep past lead times longer than the days this registration has already waited.
- WindowThe middle half (25th to 75th percentile) of those lead times.
- Lead time is the number of days from a registration's initial approval date to the first agenda item it is linked to. Only published links count (model score 0.7 or higher).
- For an open registration with no linked item after d days, the window is the middle half (25th to 75th percentile) of the historical lead times longer than d, using its topic's lead times when the topic has at least 10, otherwise all topics together.
- A spike is a month whose new registrations exceed the topic's mean over the previous 12 months by more than 2 standard deviations (and at least 3 registrations). Monthly volumes use the topic from the registry's subject categories until the decision model has tagged at least 95% of registrations, so that months tagged by different methods are not compared.
- Topics come from the tracker's taxonomy, assigned by a decision model from the registration text. Until the model has run on a registration, the topic is taken from the registry's own subject category and marked as such.
A window is a statistical estimate from past registrations, not a prediction that council will consider the matter. Many registrations never lead to an agenda item.