Early warning
Upcoming at council
Open lobbying registrations that are not yet linked to any council or committee agenda item, with an estimated window for when a linked item may appear, based on how long past registrations on the same topic took.
- With an estimated window
- 1,589
- 99% of open registrations
- Lead-time sample
- 1,207
- Registrations with a published link
1,609 open registrations without a linked item; 1,589 have an estimated window. Lead times are drawn from 1,207 registrations with a published link.
Open registrations by topic
Top 10Topic spikes in the last 12 months
New registrations vs previous 12-month averageData table· 26 rows
Open registrations: Business licensing and permits
All topics →- 20 February 2027 – 31 May 20301000600181 Ontario Inc.SM37754 · approved 2 July 2026
- 7 December 2027 – 17 September 2031Richard PorrasSM35198 · approved 8 January 2024
Data table· 2 rows
| Registration | Client | Topic | Approved | Estimated window for a linked item |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SM37754 To communicate with City of Toronto staff regarding the status and processing timeline of the client’s municipal business licence application, including any delays related to FIFA World Cup operational impacts, with the | 1000600181 Ontario Inc. | Business licensing and permits | 2 July 2026 | 20 February 2027 to 31 May 2030 from all topics' lead times (n=942) |
| SM35198 Assist owners of Real Empanada with renewing business license. Assist owners of Real Empanada to license a food truck. | Richard Porras | Business licensing and permits | 8 January 2024 | 7 December 2027 to 17 September 2031 from all topics' lead times (n=315) |
How well the window has worked
Backtest on registrations whose first linked item fell between 1 December 2018 and 14 November 2022: no registration could be evaluated (0 of 0 evaluable; 0 registrations with a published first linked item in the period). Each window uses only lead times known before the registration was approved.
Method: iqr-conditional-v1: window = interquartile range of lead times known before approval (topic if n>=10, else pooled); hit when the first published linked item falls inside.
How the window is estimated
- Lead timeDays from a registration's approval to its first published linked agenda item.
- ConditionKeep past lead times longer than the days this registration has already waited.
- WindowThe middle half (25th to 75th percentile) of those lead times.
- Lead time is the number of days from a registration's initial approval date to the first agenda item it is linked to. Only published links count (model score 0.7 or higher).
- For an open registration with no linked item after d days, the window is the middle half (25th to 75th percentile) of the historical lead times longer than d, using its topic's lead times when the topic has at least 10, otherwise all topics together.
- A spike is a month whose new registrations exceed the topic's mean over the previous 12 months by more than 2 standard deviations (and at least 3 registrations). Monthly volumes use the topic from the registry's subject categories until the decision model has tagged at least 95% of registrations, so that months tagged by different methods are not compared.
- Topics come from the tracker's taxonomy, assigned by a decision model from the registration text. Until the model has run on a registration, the topic is taken from the registry's own subject category and marked as such.
A window is a statistical estimate from past registrations, not a prediction that council will consider the matter. Many registrations never lead to an agenda item.