Explainer · 4.5
Did lobbying move toward the Mayor's office after strong-mayor powers?
Ontario gave Toronto's mayor new powers in late 2022. This page tracks the share of registered lobbying communications addressed to the Mayor or the Mayor's office staff each quarter since 2010, and estimates whether the level or trend of that share changed when the powers took effect.
Status: draft. Per lobbyTO's publication rules, this finding must be reproduced from the bulk export by a second person before it is promoted.
What the records show
- Change in level in the first full quarter after the powers took effect (2023Q1), all communications: −4.3 pts (−8.1 pts to −0.5 pts).
- Change in trend after that point: −0.2 pts per quarter (−0.6 pts to +0.2 pts).
- Quarters in the fit: 65. Latest complete quarter (2026Q3): 3.7% of 1,145 communications.
The share measures where lobbyists recorded their contacts, not influence. Lobbyists choose whom to contact, and a change in share can follow from who held the office, what council was deciding, or how offices handle meetings, as well as from the powers themselves.
Quarterly share of communications to the Mayor's office
Data table
| Quarter | All | Planning and development | Budget | Housing | Executive Committee (other members), all | Communications (all) | To Mayor's office (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010Q1 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 0 |
| 2010Q2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | — | — | — | 104 | 0 |
| 2010Q3 | 2.3% | 1.0% | — | — | — | 306 | 7 |
| 2010Q4 | 4.0% | 0.0% | — | — | — | 174 | 7 |
| 2011Q1 | 13.2% | 4.9% | — | — | — | 835 | 110 |
| 2011Q2 | 10.2% | 3.5% | 8.8% | — | — | 966 | 99 |
| 2011Q3 | 10.3% | 7.1% | 48.6% | — | — | 716 | 74 |
| 2011Q4 | 8.8% | 2.6% | 30.2% | — | — | 911 | 80 |
| 2012Q1 | 5.0% | 4.0% | 15.9% | — | — | 1,071 | 54 |
| 2012Q2 | 7.7% | 2.7% | 15.6% | — | — | 1,635 | 126 |
| 2012Q3 | 7.7% | 6.0% | 29.8% | — | — | 1,511 | 117 |
| 2012Q4 | 7.2% | 6.0% | 22.4% | — | — | 1,716 | 123 |
| 2013Q1 | 8.6% | 5.8% | 11.5% | — | — | 2,214 | 190 |
| 2013Q2 | 8.7% | 1.5% | 7.5% | — | — | 2,908 | 253 |
| 2013Q3 | 6.9% | 6.6% | — | — | — | 1,547 | 106 |
| 2013Q4 | 5.5% | 3.5% | 10.4% | — | — | 1,823 | 101 |
| 2014Q1 | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.9% | — | — | 2,764 | 55 |
| 2014Q2 | 1.0% | 0.0% | — | — | — | 1,286 | 13 |
| 2014Q3 | 2.2% | 0.0% | — | — | — | 1,404 | 31 |
| 2014Q4 | 3.2% | 4.8% | — | — | — | 967 | 31 |
| 2015Q1 | 18.1% | 13.1% | 27.0% | 4.3% | — | 2,082 | 377 |
| 2015Q2 | 12.5% | 8.4% | — | — | — | 2,572 | 322 |
| 2015Q3 | 5.4% | 3.0% | — | — | — | 3,353 | 180 |
| 2015Q4 | 7.8% | 6.6% | 56.7% | 13.3% | — | 2,198 | 171 |
| 2016Q1 | 8.8% | 7.4% | 10.9% | — | — | 2,542 | 223 |
| 2016Q2 | 7.4% | 10.8% | 13.9% | 33.3% | — | 3,058 | 226 |
| 2016Q3 | 8.4% | 9.2% | 5.1% | 15.9% | — | 2,275 | 190 |
| 2016Q4 | 8.3% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 15.0% | — | 2,741 | 227 |
| 2017Q1 | 9.9% | 13.4% | 13.6% | 18.9% | — | 2,859 | 283 |
| 2017Q2 | 12.2% | 11.0% | 2.0% | 34.7% | — | 3,053 | 372 |
| 2017Q3 | 13.2% | 11.7% | — | 14.5% | — | 2,098 | 276 |
| 2017Q4 | 12.7% | 8.1% | 16.7% | 6.5% | — | 3,182 | 405 |
| 2018Q1 | 10.4% | 12.7% | — | 11.8% | — | 2,654 | 275 |
| 2018Q2 | 10.5% | 16.3% | — | — | — | 2,302 | 241 |
| 2018Q3 | 8.7% | 14.2% | 0.0% | — | — | 1,303 | 114 |
| 2018Q4 | 7.6% | 10.3% | 7.1% | — | — | 1,933 | 147 |
| 2019Q1 | 12.4% | 15.0% | 34.3% | 0.0% | — | 2,284 | 283 |
| 2019Q2 | 9.2% | 14.3% | 33.6% | 15.4% | — | 3,288 | 304 |
| 2019Q3 | 7.9% | 7.7% | 20.0% | 2.7% | — | 1,803 | 143 |
| 2019Q4 | 8.6% | 11.0% | 26.8% | 6.1% | — | 1,950 | 168 |
| 2020Q1 | 7.1% | 11.6% | 21.5% | 8.4% | — | 2,046 | 145 |
| 2020Q2 | 11.9% | 14.1% | 18.3% | 2.6% | — | 1,749 | 209 |
| 2020Q3 | 9.6% | 11.5% | 29.8% | 0.0% | — | 1,978 | 190 |
| 2020Q4 | 14.6% | 20.5% | 62.0% | 17.3% | — | 2,497 | 365 |
| 2021Q1 | 10.7% | 16.3% | 37.2% | 2.8% | — | 2,727 | 293 |
| 2021Q2 | 9.4% | 11.3% | 20.6% | 10.4% | — | 2,521 | 236 |
| 2021Q3 | 8.1% | 9.8% | 32.6% | 2.9% | — | 2,014 | 164 |
| 2021Q4 | 10.2% | 11.2% | 42.1% | 4.3% | — | 2,030 | 208 |
| 2022Q1 | 10.5% | 10.1% | 19.1% | 2.4% | — | 1,703 | 178 |
| 2022Q2 | 7.7% | 8.2% | — | 12.4% | — | 1,725 | 133 |
| 2022Q3 | 9.1% | 14.1% | — | 17.1% | — | 1,137 | 104 |
| 2022Q4 | 10.8% | 18.3% | 30.6% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 1,653 | 179 |
| 2023Q1 | 5.1% | 4.7% | 31.5% | 1.3% | 18.3% | 2,471 | 127 |
| 2023Q2 | 4.4% | 3.7% | 24.7% | 4.7% | 13.9% | 2,232 | 98 |
| 2023Q3 | 6.1% | 5.1% | 31.2% | 9.7% | 18.5% | 1,906 | 116 |
| 2023Q4 | 8.5% | 5.4% | 12.6% | 9.0% | 28.2% | 2,173 | 184 |
| 2024Q1 | 9.2% | 6.6% | 10.5% | 5.5% | 25.0% | 2,294 | 211 |
| 2024Q2 | 7.1% | 4.9% | 12.1% | 8.5% | 22.3% | 2,981 | 213 |
| 2024Q3 | 7.8% | 7.5% | 2.6% | 14.5% | 28.7% | 2,001 | 157 |
| 2024Q4 | 5.6% | 4.7% | — | 2.6% | 22.4% | 2,331 | 130 |
| 2025Q1 | 4.9% | 4.8% | 0.0% | 11.0% | 22.1% | 1,952 | 96 |
| 2025Q2 | 6.8% | 4.7% | 17.7% | 8.6% | 20.5% | 1,708 | 116 |
| 2025Q3 | 4.2% | 4.9% | 0.0% | 2.5% | 23.2% | 1,672 | 71 |
| 2025Q4 | 4.1% | 2.5% | — | 2.1% | 25.0% | 1,643 | 68 |
| 2026Q1 | 5.9% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 13.7% | 18.5% | 1,631 | 96 |
| 2026Q2 | 9.1% | 5.7% | — | 7.8% | 16.2% | 1,407 | 128 |
| 2026Q3 | 3.7% | 3.0% | — | 5.1% | 5.2% | 1,145 | 42 |
Interrupted time series estimates
Main specification, level change at 2023Q1 by subject group (percentage points of the share, 95% interval).
- All communications
- −4.3 pts
- −8.1 pts to −0.5 pts · 65 quarters
- Planning and development
- −9.7 pts
- −13.4 pts to −6.0 pts · 65 quarters
- Budget
- −0.4 pts
- −20.8 pts to +20.0 pts · 46 quarters
- Housing
- +2.3 pts
- −7.0 pts to +11.6 pts · 40 quarters
All specifications
| Group | Specification | Level change | Trend change per quarter | Quarters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All communications | Main: 2010 onward, with an indicator for the period council removed Mayor Ford's powers | −4.3 pts (−8.1 pts to −0.5 pts) | −0.2 pts (−0.6 pts to +0.2 pts) | 65 |
| All communications | Adds an indicator for the 2023 vacancy in the Mayor's office | −2.2 pts (−7.4 pts to +3.1 pts) | −0.4 pts (−0.9 pts to +0.2 pts) | 65 |
| All communications | From 2015 only (excludes the Ford years) | −2.7 pts (−6.3 pts to +0.9 pts) | −0.0 pts (−0.4 pts to +0.4 pts) | 46 |
| Planning and development | Main: 2010 onward, with an indicator for the period council removed Mayor Ford's powers | −9.7 pts (−13.4 pts to −6.0 pts) | −0.4 pts (−0.7 pts to +0.0 pts) | 65 |
| Planning and development | Adds an indicator for the 2023 vacancy in the Mayor's office | −8.5 pts (−13.7 pts to −3.3 pts) | −0.5 pts (−1.0 pts to +0.1 pts) | 65 |
| Planning and development | From 2015 only (excludes the Ford years) | −8.4 pts (−12.6 pts to −4.1 pts) | −0.2 pts (−0.7 pts to +0.2 pts) | 46 |
| Budget | Main: 2010 onward, with an indicator for the period council removed Mayor Ford's powers | −0.4 pts (−20.8 pts to +20.0 pts) | −2.6 pts (−5.3 pts to −0.0 pts) | 46 |
| Budget | Adds an indicator for the 2023 vacancy in the Mayor's office | −13.4 pts (−43.6 pts to +16.8 pts) | −1.2 pts (−4.8 pts to +2.4 pts) | 46 |
| Budget | From 2015 only (excludes the Ford years) | −5.2 pts (−27.8 pts to +17.3 pts) | −3.0 pts (−5.8 pts to −0.3 pts) | 35 |
| Housing | Main: 2010 onward, with an indicator for the period council removed Mayor Ford's powers | +2.3 pts (−7.0 pts to +11.6 pts) | +0.5 pts (−0.4 pts to +1.4 pts) | 40 |
| Housing | Adds an indicator for the 2023 vacancy in the Mayor's office | +4.3 pts (−8.4 pts to +17.1 pts) | +0.3 pts (−1.0 pts to +1.6 pts) | 40 |
| Housing | From 2015 only (excludes the Ford years) | +2.3 pts (−7.0 pts to +11.6 pts) | +0.5 pts (−0.4 pts to +1.4 pts) | 40 |
Key dates
- 8 September 2022: the Strong Mayors, Building Homes Act, 2022 (Bill 3, S.O. 2022, c. 18) receives Royal Assent. Its Schedule 1, which adds Part VI.1 to the City of Toronto Act, 2006, comes into force by proclamation on 23 November 2022 (legislative history of the City of Toronto Act, 2006). The Mayor gains powers over the budget, committee chairs, senior staff and a veto over by-laws that conflict with provincial priorities.
- 8 December 2022: the Better Municipal Governance Act, 2022 (Bill 39, S.O. 2022, c. 24) receives Royal Assent. Its Schedule 1 comes into force on 20 December 2022, letting the Mayor pass by-laws that advance provincial priorities with the support of more than one-third of council.
- 1 December 2010: Rob Ford takes office.
- 18 November 2013: Council transfers mayoral powers to the Deputy Mayor.
- 1 December 2014: John Tory takes office.
- 17 February 2023: Mayor resigns; office vacant.
- 12 July 2023: Olivia Chow takes office.
Method
- Source: every dated communication in the City of Toronto Lobbyist Registry from 1 January 2010 (127,730 communications). A communication counts as addressed to the Mayor's office when the office recorded for it names the Mayor ("Mayor's Office", "Office of Mayor John Tory", "Mayor") and not the Deputy Mayor. This rule reads the registry's office text directly, so it covers every term, including those for which lobbyTO has not resolved office holders to people.
- Subject groups use the registry's subject categories: planning and development (applications, zoning, site plan, Official Plan, minor variance, heritage, building permits), budget, and housing (affordable housing, rental housing, shelters, tower renewal). A registration can be in several groups.
- The Executive Committee comparison counts communications to members who sat on Executive Committee at the time (from the voting record), excluding the Mayor, and is available only for terms whose votes are loaded (2018 onward).
- Segmented regression: share = intercept + pre-period trend + level change + trend change after the break, with AR(1) errors estimated by Prais-Winsten. The two laws took effect four weeks apart in 2022Q4, so they share one interruption: 2022Q4 is left out as a partially exposed quarter and 2023Q1 is the first post-period quarter. The design cannot separate Bill 3 from Bill 39. Quarters with fewer than 30 communications in a group are left out. Intervals are 95% (t distribution). On simulated series of this length, these intervals cover the true value about 91% of the time, so they are slightly narrow.
- Sensitivity: adding an indicator for the 2023 vacancy (February to July 2023), and starting in 2015 to exclude the Ford years, when council removed most of the Mayor's powers from November 2013.
- Data: /api/v1/insights/mayor-share and /api/v1/insights/mayor-share/its; tables mayor_share_quarterly and mayor_share_its in the bulk export. Method version its-v1+641c2ce497.
Limitations
- The registry records contacts lobbyists report; contacts that were not registered are not counted.
- The change of mayor (Tory to a vacancy to Chow) happened within months of the powers taking effect, so the estimate mixes the effect of the powers with the effect of who held the office.
- Office text is free text. Contacts recorded only under a staff member's name without an office are not counted as the Mayor's office.
- The most recent quarter is incomplete and is excluded; lobbyists may also record communications late.
- The Executive Committee comparison depends on lobbyTO resolving office holders to members, which is available only for terms whose votes are loaded, and on committee membership taken from the voting record. More members sat on Executive Committee at some point in the 2022–2026 term than in 2018–2022, which by itself raises that share; treat the comparison as descriptive.